Ruto, Raila, Gachagua and the complex maths shaping 2027 alliances

“Congratulations my senior brother President Uhuru Kenyatta for winning back control of the Jubilee Party. At a time when there is a competition to burn Kenya through escalation, emotions and divisions, Jubilee Party under your stewardship has a major role to play in keeping Kenya safe. The future is luminous”.

Mr Kuria addressing the former president in such respectful and glowing terms is instructive in that he was one of President Ruto’s foot soldiers in the Mt Kenya deployed to wage war against Mr Kenyatta during and after the 2022 election campaigns.

In the aftermath of the 2022 elections, Mr Kuria might also have been instrumental in plotting the coup, fronted by East African Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega and nominated Member of the National Assembly Sabina Chege, which temporarily seized control of the Jubilee Party from Mr Kenyatta.

The coup was designed to rob Mr Kenyatta of a key political platform as recriminations form the 2022 polls continued pitting the former president against his successor and former deputy, Dr Ruto. That one of Dr Ruto’s key political strategists and political point men in the Mt Kenya region is now welcoming Mr Kenyatta’s victory in the Jubilee factional fight is telling.

Greatest threat 

The Kenya Kwanza campaign machinery needs Mr Kenyatta to halt the momentum gained in the region by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who probably presents the greatest threat to Dr Ruto’s quest for a second term come 2027.

Mr Kuria’s references to threats to “burn Kenya through escalation, emotions and divisions” are in direct reference to the aggressive campaign mounted by Mr Gachagua to control the Mt Kenya vote, as well as play the lead role in assembling the coalition that will take the fight to Dr Ruto at the next polls.

At this stage, it looks like the next elections will see Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza brigade, which now also includes former opposition leader Raila Odinga’s ODM party, squaring off against what remains of the Azimio coalition since the latter decamped and was effectively replaced by Mr Gachagua.

Ruto will be the obvious presidential candidate for his alliance, but there is uncertainty on who will fly the opposition flag. Gachagua controls a formidable Mt Kenya voting bloc but is unlikely to be a candidate himself unless the courts overturn the impeachment, which also barred him from holding public office. The legal bar aside, he is also aware that it would be impolitic at this stage for Mt Kenya to field a presidential candidate.

The former DP — who recently unveiled his own outfit, the Democracy for the Citizens Party — has been giving strong signals that he will throw his weight behind former Vice President and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka. However, Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has publicly indicated that it intends to field former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who recently returned from the United States after a long absence in preparation for the formal launch of his presidential campaign.

 Read: Matiang’i, region’s one million votes and why Ruto, Raila should be wary 

From the main opposition wing, Mr Odinga’s 2022 running-mate Martha Karua, who has rebranded her political outfit from Narc Kenya to People’s Liberation Party, has also indicated that she could be in the running.

Outside the main opposition alliance, there are also other declared aspirants, most notably former Chief Justice David Maraga and Busia Senator Okoiti Omtata, both of whom have rebuffed approaches from Mr Gachagua, and at the moment can only be considered third-party aspirants. So far the Ruto camp is focusing on the main opposition grouping, paying close attention to the search for candidates while also putting in place elaborate plans to sow divisions within.

An obvious sign of likely cleavage, which Kenya Kwanza will want to exploit to the full, is in who between Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang’i gets flag, and by extension the battle between Gachagua and Ruto for control of the Mt Kenya vote.

Read:  Gachagua, Kalonzo hire experts in search of joint candidate 

Mr Kuria’s social media post welcoming Mr Kenyatta’s victory in the battle for control of Jubilee indicates Kenya Kwanza’s desire to fuel competition within the main opposition alliance.

According to well-placed sources, the campaign machinery has conducted several internal opinion polls, tracking Dr Ruto’s likely performance in one-on-one duels against a variety of likely challengers. The results have been inconclusive given that the opposition has not yet settled on a single candidate. The numbers give Dr Ruto a slight edge against either Mr Musyoka or Dr Matiang’i, but the campaign strategists are cautious that the traditional assessment of looking at likely voting preferences by ethnic bastions might be wildly inaccurate given the rage unleashed by the Gen Z revolt of last year, and the widespread discontent amongst a youthful population not bound by tribal loyalties.

One conclusion is that the best bet to ensure a second term is a divided opposition. While there is no prospect of wooing either Mr Kenyatta or Mr Gachagua to do their bidding, the campaign is banking on the two Mt Kenya titans — both being headstrong and proud figures who will not easily reach a compromise and therefore respectively field Kalonzo and Matiang’i.

The Ruto camp polling numbers present a dire picture in regard to Mt Kenya, which provided over 48 per cent of his numbers last time; and made up of about 80 per cent of the regional vote. They will be content this time with 20 percent of that vote but are also aware that the massive voting bloc is presently a floating vote as it has no strong aspirant representing the community interests.

If Mt Kenya leans solidly towards any other candidate, as it did for Dr Ruto in the absence of a credible flag bearer for the community in 2022, whoever that is will present a formidable challenger.

President Ruto’s strategists have crunched the numbers and concluded that the Mt Kenya vote must be split either by rivalry between Uhuru and Gachagua, or by his sponsoring a ‘Manchurian Candidate’ from the region who might scoop a substantial number of votes that would otherwise go to the main opposition challenge.

They are looking at the 2022 elections, which showed that whereas Mt Kenya has since the return of multi-partyism in 1992 voted solidly for one of their own, the region also likes to identify with a winner. It will not waste votes on a no-hopper, as seen with the only candidate from the community at the last polls, David Mwaure of Agano party who got a paltry 32,000 votes, failing to make a mark even in his village.

Previous presidential attempts by well-known figures such as Ms Wangari Mathai, Mr Paul Muite, Mr Koigi Wamwere, Mr Peter Kenneth and even Ms Karua herself failed to impress Mt Kenya voters.

They are, therefore, looking at prospects of a more credible figure, hoping that Ms Karua throws her hat into the ring. They are also assessing the prospects of some of the Kenya Kwanza politicians who have earned a national profile but whose continued loyalty to Dr Ruto remains uncertain given hostility on the ground. Among those who could be considered include governors Ann Waiguru of Kirinyaga and Irungu Kangata of Murang’a, and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.

None of the three, however, have indicated that they would be willing to sacrifice their current political offices to play spoilers in the elections.

Ukambani voting bloc

The campaign has also looked at the strengths and weaknesses of all the likely challengers and started designing appropriate campaign counter-offensives for each.

There has been hope that Mr Musyoka could be persuaded to cross over to the Kenya Kwanza side, but the politician once derided as ‘watermelon’ for lack of clear stands on national issues has over the last few years provided himself resolute and determined in opposition ranks.

He carries a loyal Ukambani voting bloc which over the last three elections he has taken Mr Odinga’s way, but now is determined to go all the way and will present a serious challenge if Mr Gachagua can swing him the Mt Kenya vote.

Then there is Dr Matiang’i, an unknown quantity politically but with a reputation for being hard-working, efficient and resolute as evidenced during his stints as Mr Kenyatta’s Cabinet Secretary for Education, first, and later Interior. He comes from the relatively small Gusii region but would be a strong contender if Mr Kenyatta secures him the Mt Kenya vote and also if he is the main opposition candidate.

He could, however, be vulnerable once the Kenya Kwanza machinery goes for him on a reputation for ruthlessness during his time in charge of the security docket, notably the heavy hand of the police in extra-judicial executions and the deportation of political activist Miguna Miguna. Dr Ruto’s machinery has also long pointed the finger at Dr Matiang’i for involvement in the Ruaraka Land scandal. However, a negative campaign on Dr Matiang’i might be tricky given that the Ruto regime has its own long list of scandals.