Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Analysts, allies and critics of opposition leader Raila Odinga are floating four options that the ODM leader could pursue after he lost the quest to become African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson.
Broadly, they believe Mr Odinga could cement his ties with President William Ruto with the understanding he secures more positions in government; continue extracting concessions from the President while pushing the narrative he isn’t part of the ruling coalition; reignite his criticism of the government to prepare for a sixth run; and reach out to his former opposition allies.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who is working to build a coalition against President Ruto, has sent overtures to Mr Odinga to join the efforts.
Political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja provided a tentative road map for Mr Odinga. “I think between now and January/March next year, he will not want to completely rock the boat for his many cronies in government,” Prof Kagwanja said.
Power bargain
He said Mr Odinga has since hinted at pushing for a pact with Dr Ruto. “I am anticipating a Mr Odinga homecoming public function near or in one of his political bases, which President Ruto was trying to inherit. Mr Odinga will move to consolidate his bases to help him bargain for more power and resources to boot,” Prof Kagwanja said.
He added that Dr Ruto is also a negotiator and might refuse some of the demands that might come from Mr Odinga. “Mr Odinga has never been under the kind of public criticism as he is today for abandoning the people. Then by June/August next year, one year to the election, he will start engaging in pushes seeking to be king or kingmaker. Obviously, he makes more money as king rather than kingmaker. So this is a toss-up,” Prof Kagwanja said.
President William Ruto (left) and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at State House, Nairobi, on August 27, 2024.
He added that by March/May 2027, before nominations, he believes the former prime minister will have fully made up his mind.
“Mr Odinga is a foxy politician, a quintessential politician who has neither permanent enemies nor permanent friends, but only permanent interests. My only fear is that President Ruto has entered himself into the grave risk of becoming a puppet of blackmail to continue winning Mr Odinga support to keep his government afloat,” he said.
Already, in an attempt to appease Mr Odinga after the court ruled that Azimio is the majority in the National Assembly, Dr Ruto has committed to have Kenya Kwanza cede control of key House committees to Azimio.
Mr Odinga's running mate in the 2013 and 2017 presidential bids, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, suggested his former boss has two prominent options. “Join President Ruto to mess up the country or join the people seeking an escape route from the current tyrannical rule,” he said.
Mr Musyoka said he preferred the latter because “by doing so, Mr Odinga will have won back the confidence he has since lost among Kenyans”.
“He should reclaim his legacy as a man who has fought for democracy. How can he lose all that by siding with dictators in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance government? If ODM decides to join Ruto, they are lost,” he said in Kirinyaga on Saturday.
He urged Mr Odinga to consider that Kenyans need him in the battle ahead and he should not bite the bait of Dr Ruto and his allies who now seek to make him prime minister.
Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki, perhaps sensing the looming political upheaval, has urged Mr Odinga to continue supporting Dr Ruto. “I am of the idea that we look into this AUC result and live with it...we use it as a learning experience...but of importance is that Mr Odinga continues his patriotic streak of supporting the government for the sake of the country.”
Prof Kindiki, during a church service at Ntemwene Methodist Church in Meru County a week ago, asked Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga to “continue working together to build a united Kenya, secure peace and unity of our country”.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna argued his boss will realise that supporting Dr Ruto is not an option. “Even if he supports President Ruto’s re-election, which personally under whatever circumstances I cannot do, I will give him my honest advice as to why it is a bad decision. Let us wait for him to speak his mind. Important decisions are best left to him to personally state his mind,” he told
Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna during an interview in his office at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi on September 22, 2023.
But Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma on February 16 told the Nation that Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto should formalise their relations so that structures of engagement can be well established and defined. “We are a patriotic lot and we mean well for this country. We will not agree to burn the country at the altar of selfishness. We should pursue a smooth enactment of a ruling pact between us for Mr Odinga and for President Ruto,” Mr Kaluma said.
Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu warned Mr Odinga that he is losing the fame of being the people's defender. “That fame has since been grabbed by Mr Gachagua who has proceeded to make a big name for himself by mercilessly battering President Ruto and his government, vowing to do everything possible to have him lose in 2027,” Mr Nyutu said.
Political pundits only fear that Mr Odinga, in pursuing those options, will not apply radical political projects that he has in plenty in his bag of tricks. Rather, they hope that for the sake of preserving Kenya’s fluid economic and political status, he will be moderate. “But one man who in all these Odinga options will not be resting easy, for sure, is President Ruto,” said Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni.
Mr Kioni chided Dr Ruto for voluntarily going out of his way to mould a political enemy in the name of Mr Gachagua. He said, “Mr Gachagua has turned out to be our best soldier in dismantling President Ruto and he makes our collective work of dislodging him from State House relatively easier.”
Mr Kioni said Mr Gachagua is the antidote to Mr Odinga as he weakens Dr Ruto in a magnitude the former premier cannot match if he (Mr Odinga) threw his lot with the incumbent.
Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo said, “President Ruto must be hoping against all hope that Mr Odinga will not join the Gen Z who already have won Mr Kenyatta's public support, or go the protests and mapambano (uprising) route.”
He argued that Dr Ruto must have hoped that he would successfully sponsor Mr Odinga to bag the AUC seat and in return, transfer his traditional voting blocs to him for 2027 re-election.
Dr Ruto had, a day after Mr Odinga lost the AUC vote, said his support for the former premier had nothing to do with safeguarding selfish interests. He said he supported Mr Odinga because his vision for the continent mirrored Kenya’s interests. “When he announced that he wanted to run for the AUC seat, I told him I would support him. It was not about politics or 2022 or 2027.”
He said it was about the only Kenyan who aspired to run for a position that would benefit the country.
