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Half of Kenyans have no confidence in IEBC selection process - Poll
TIFA Research analyst, Dr Tom Wolf.
Half of Kenyans have no confidence in the just-concluded selection process for new commissioners of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), or that the 2027 General Election will be free and fair.
A new poll by Tifa Research released on Tuesday revealed that 50 percent of the respondents said they are not confident at all in the integrity of the upcoming elections, while only 20 percent said they are “very confident.”
Another 21 percent said they are “somewhat confident,” and nine percent were unsure.
The survey, conducted between May 2 and 6 with a nationally representative sample of 2,024 respondents across nine regions, found that 50 percent of Kenyans are “not confident at all” about the integrity of the next election.
Only 20 percent expressed “very confident” sentiments, while 21 percent were “somewhat confident,” and 9 percent were unsure.
Public confidence in the selection of a new IEBC Chairperson and Commissioners is also low.
The positions have remained vacant for nearly two years, and 55 percent of Kenyans say they do not trust the vetting process.
Only 39 percent expressed confidence.
“Right now, the integrity of Kenya’s electoral process is still a major concern. Many Kenyans have no confidence at all in the fairness of the upcoming 2027 elections. Only a small number fully trust the process, while others are only somewhat confident, Overall, a majority (55 percent) of Kenyans are not confident that the vetting has been merit-based, revealing a serious legitimacy deficit for the Commission and the appointing authorities,” Mr Tom Wolf, the lead researcher at Tifa, told journalists.
For the 50 percent of Kenyans who have no confidence in the next election’s integrity, the poll showed, the most commonly expressed concerns are about political interference, corruption, and failures of the IEBC (30 percent, 29 percent and 23 percent, respectively).
Past flaws
“Those who believe previous elections were fair tend to trust the current process, while those who view past elections as flawed express deep skepticism,” said Mr Wolf.
Conversely, public attitudes appear heavily shaped by views of previous elections.
Only 31 percent of Kenyans believe all three past presidential elections (2013, 2017, and 2022) were valid, with 37 percent saying only one or two were legitimate.
Alarmingly, 32 percent believe none of them reflected the true outcome of the vote.
Further the confidence levels vary significantly by region.
In Central Rift and Mt Kenya, 38 percent and 39 percent respectively believe all elections were valid.
In contrast, only 16 percent in Nyanza say so, while 48 percent of respondents from the region believe none of the elections were valid.
“The perceived integrity of Kenya’s electoral processes remains a challenge, with half of all Kenyans (50 percent) expressing no confidence in the integrity of the 2027 elections. Only 20 percent have complete confidence, while 21 percent say they are somewhat confident, “said Mr Wolf.
“Looking forward to the next elections in 2027, there is a clear correlation between expectations of its integrity and views about the validity of the last three official presidential election results. Specifically, more than three times as many of those who expect the next elections to be free and fair believe all of the last three presidential elections produced valid results as those who believe that none of them did so,” he added.
IEBC tallying clerks at Kathiani Boys High School following the conclusion of vote tallying on August 10, 2022.
Concerns fueling the lack of trust include political interference (30 percent), corruption and voter bribery (29 percent), and lack of trust in the electoral commission (23 percent).
Despite the high stakes, awareness of key electoral issues remains low. Only 8 percent of Kenyans could correctly identify that the IEBC has already missed a key constitutional deadline—the review of constituency boundaries, which was due in February 2024.
“Two-thirds of Kenyans were unable to identify the main (and perhaps only) constitutional deadline in terms of preparation for the next election (due to the vacancies in the IEBC: the review of constituency deadlines. This process should have been completed February, 2024,” he said.