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What Vietnam’s rise reveals about Kenya’s stagnation

William Ruto

President William Ruto receives credentials from Vietnam's Ambassador Madam Vu Thank at State House, Nairobi on March 05, 2025.

Photo credit: PCS

By  Nelson Amenya

Columnist

What you need to know:

  • There are three primary drivers of economic growth: capital, labour, and total factor productivity (TFP).
  • No country has ever lifted its people from poverty without accelerating TFP growth rate.

This week, I had the privilege of speaking with Doanh Chau, President of Vietnam Gas/Energy Science Group and Founder of MED21, a healthcare startup based in Silicon Valley. If his name doesn’t ring a bell, you might recall his viral LinkedIn post titled Why Africa Waits While Asia Builds? and his stinging parting line to Kenya’s President and his Prime CS: “They must turn off the microphone and turn on the power.” If that jogs your memory, let me explain why our exchange holds a mirror to Kenya’s future.

But first, a little background. Our icebreaker was a reflection on our shared experience of studying in prestigious French institutions. Doanh is an alumnus of Sciences Po, one of France’s premier schools for political science, while I recently completed my MBA at HEC Paris, the country’s top business school.

Naturally, our conversation turned to Paris, Doanh reminisced about the city’s golden age in the 1970s, when he studied here. On a recent visit, however, he said he was taken aback by what I jokingly called “Paris Syndrome” the jarring gap between expectations and the often gritty reality. Still, despite its flaws, I still think its one of the best cities.

Related

Economic development

Obviously I wanted to know why he made the critical post about Kenyan leaders that resonated so much with Kenyans and this is what he told me: Doanh first encountered Nairobi in the 1970s through the film Mondo Cane, which showcased images of a city with towering buildings and a bustling urban landscape. At the time, his hometown of Saigon in Vietnam had only one notable high-rise, the Ky Thuong Bank building. To him, Nairobi appeared as a beacon of modernity and progress. He promised himself that one day, he would travel to Kenya and see it with his own eyes.

This year, he finally did but what he found shocked him. Staying in a downtown hotel built in 1902, he said that much of Nairobi still resembled the city he had seen on TV nearly 50 years ago. Yes, there are more high-rises today, but to him, the soul of the city felt frozen in time. His observation forced me to reflect: Has Nairobi really changed in any meaningful way over the past six decades?

To answer that, we must turn to the fundamentals of economic development (brace yourself for a macroeconomics lesson). There are three primary drivers of economic growth: capital, labour, and total factor productivity (TFP). While capital and labour account for about 40 per cent of economic progress, TFP, a measure of how efficiently an economy uses its resources drives the remaining 60 per cent.

TFP growth rate

In the 1970s, Kenya’s TFP was on the rise as local industries began to flourish. But over time, the influx of cheap imports and a decline in competitiveness dragged TFP into negative territory. The Kibaki administration briefly reversed the trend. In contrast, Vietnam now boasts a TFP growth rate of 5.6 per cent. To put that into perspective: In the early 2000s, Kenya’s TFP stood at 0.4 per cent, while Vietnam’s was at 0.77 per cent.

Since then, Vietnam has surged ahead; Kenya has stagnated or declined. The difference is not due to a lack of capital or labour, it's rooted in institutional failure. So when Chau says Nairobi looks unchanged since the 1970s, he’s not simply referring to its skyline. He’s speaking to a deeper paralysis: the stagnation of our institutions, the decay of trust, and the abandonment of long-term vision.

And that, fellow Kenyans, should worry us all. No country has ever lifted its people from poverty without accelerating TFP growth rate. And yet, this boils down to the kind of leaders we vote for. If we vote in a visionless leader who’s dream is to be rich, we are betting against our very own future.
Change demands collective action. We need a critical mass of citizens who not only understand the stakes, but are willing to defend the ballot, uphold integrity, and challenge the status quo. If we act together, we can rewrite our story. If we remain divided, we will remain stuck in time.

The writer is a management consultant, whistleblower and active citizen